Lowassa’s defection to alter polls drama landscape

 

Former Prime Minister Edward Lowassa and the outgoing Vunjo MP Augustine Mrema. The former is following in the footsteps of the latter. PHOTO | FILE 

Dar es Salaam. Augustino Lyatonga Mrema was a household name during the 1995 General Election. The man, who had served as the minister for Home Affairs and Deputy Prime Minister in the Ali Hassan Mwinyi’s administration, defected from ruling party CCM to the then main opposition party NCCR-Mageuzi and ran for the presidency.

His defection and candidacy received popular support from the public that other CCM’s senior members such as Makongoro Nyerere, the son of founding President Mwl Julius Nyerere, veteran politician Stephen Wassira and prominent lawyer and academician Masumbuko Lamwai to name but a few, also followed suit.

Mr Mrema’s campaign rallies attracted huge crowds. He was treated like a king wherever he went, and was routinely carried shoulder high by his supporters. His car was pushed in long processions in almost every town that he visited.

Mr Mrema’s popularity set against the backdrop of a less known Benjamin Mkapa who was CCM’s candidate that year sent shocking waves to the ruling CCM.

Mr Mrema’s popularity tested the credibility of a survey done three years previously that indicated that 80 per cent of Tanzanians rejected the re-introduction of multiparty politics and just a year earlier in 1994 CCM had won the local government elections by 97 per cent.

At the end of the day CCM managed to win the presidential election by 61 per cent and Mr Mrema finished second with 27 per cent of all votes.

For the last 20 years CCM has constantly seen some of its leaders and members cross to opposition but no major defection like the one of 1995 has occurred till Mr Edward Lowassa announcement yesterday.

It started as a wild rumour. And it eventually materialized when Mr Lowassa, a former Prime Minister announced that he was decamping to Chadema to pursue his presidential ambitions.

Some signs of the defection started to be observed as early as when the ruling party meetings chopped Mr Lowassa’s name from presidential nomination race. That did not auger well with his diehard supporters who started to cross to Chadema straight away starting with councilors from his Monduli constituency.

More alarming was when some influential politicians from Arusha who are said to be Mr Lowassa’s faithful lieutenants and who were highly expected to pick CCM nomination forms to defend or seek elective posts via the party failed to do so without giving out any concrete reasons. They include, outgoing Arumeru West MP Mr Goodluck Ole Medeye, CCM Arusha regional chair Mr Onesmo Ole Nangole and CCM youth wing Arusha chair Mr Robinson Meitinyiku.

Soon after the nomination process was over Lowassa’s supporters, including a veteran politician and propagandist Mr Kingunge Ngombare Mwiru, criticized the party’s Ethics Committee (EC) by going against CCM constitution and assumed powers which are beyond it by chopping Mr Lowassa’s name from the contest.

CCM’s former vice chairman Mr Pius Msekwa last Wednesday fielded an opinion piece in the The Citizen defending the conduct of the party in selecting its presidential candidate which saw Works Minister Mr John Magufuli emerging victorious.

According to Mr Msekwa, unlike what Mr Kingunge and others are propagating the EC did what it was constitutionally mandated to do.

He also talked about defection saying “… this matter of few persons defecting to opposition political parties cannot be a major concern for CCM.” Mr Msekwa added that the party for long has been prepared for such incidents.

“Right from the introduction of multiparty politics way back in 1992, CCM foresaw the possibility of some of its members deciding to join other parties…Hence it comes as no surprise at all to CCM when some of its members decide to exit from the party.”

One might not be wrong to say that Mr Msekwa was using the chance to tell the public that the party will not be shaken let alone surprised if Mr Lowassa is to defect and that they are used and prepared to deal with such situations.

However the question of how prepared is CCM to deal with defectors is a hot issue, political science don from University of Dar es Salaam Dr Alexander Makulilo argued in his 2012 paper titled The Fallacy of De Facto Independent Candidacy in Tanzania: a Rejoinder that the ruling party CCM, has some relatively effective mechanisms and advantages to deal with such defections.

“Some of those who tried, experienced negative consequences and finally decided to return to the CCM. For example, Dr. Masumbuko Lamwai who was once an icon in the NCCR-Mageuzi in 1995 was expelled from teaching at the University of Dar es Salaam and his certificate to practice law (advocate) was frozen. Finally, in 2000 he returned to CCM (after he apologised before the CCM chairman and the former president of the United Republic, Mr. Benjamin Mkapa and thousands of CCM members at the Dar es Salaam National stadium). He was later nominated by the president as a member of parliament (MP) and he is currently a senior CCM legal advisor,” read Dr Makulila’s arguments in part.

Mr Makongoro Nyerere and Mr Stephen Wassira also returned to CCM in early 2000s and they were also among the party’s 42 aspirants who picked presidential nomination forms this year.

And as of Mr Mrema who gave CCM a serious run for their money in 1995, he only survived with NCCR-Mageuzi for a short time before again defecting to TLP. After running unsuccessfully for presidency in in 2000 and 2005 General Elections, Mr Mrema addressed the CCM congress meeting (which he was invited to attend) and said he was retiring from presidential business and was going back to seeking for parliamentary seat.

Now that Mr Lowassa has decided to cross the bridge and settled in the other side of the river he will surely manage to attract massive support just like Mr Mrema in 1995 or even more. However, he must also get prepared to face the full force of the system that he joined in 1977 and stayed with it until few days ago. He knows CCM won’t hesitate to deploy every possible missile it holds in its arsenal to see that they clinch victory come October.

According to Dr Makulilo CCM usually use a trick he referred to as “carrot” to avoid what Mr Lowassa has done and calm the situation.

“It was said during the 2010 elections that Dr. Mohamed Bilal, who was one of the potential presidential candidates in Zanzibar, threatened to defect after he was not nominated by his party. Following such threats, he was nominated as the Vice-President for the United Republic. This helped to defuse the situation,” reads part of Dr Makulilla’s paper.

With Mr Lowassa gone, it looks like there was no remaining “carrot” that the party might have used to please and clam man who was in all accounts well prepared and amassed support inside and outside CCM to succeed President Jakaya Kikwete from living the party.

that only four years down the line that the vast majority at 80 per cent rejected the reintroduction of multiparty system (although the system was established in 1992) and just a year earlier in 1994 CCM had won the local government elections by 97 per cent.

However CCM through its presidential contender Mr Bemjamin Mkapa managed to win the election by 61 per cent. Mrema finished second obtaining 27 per cent of all votes.

For the last 20 years CCM has been constantly seeing some of its leaders and members cross to opposition but no major defection like the one of 1995 has been recorded. This year however there is a serious talk of major defection, the same or even bigger than that of 1995.

Although he has maintained a studious silence media reports has been linking former Prime Minister Mr Edward Lowassa with a move to opposition, specifically to the main opposition party Chadema.

Already some of his followers including councillors from his Monduli constituency have joined Chadema have been urging him to follow suit. More alarming is the fact that some of influential politicians from Arusha who are said to be Mr Lowassa’s faithful leutenats and were highly expected to pick nomination forms to defend or seek elective posts via the party ticket failed to do so without giving out any concrete reason. They are among others, outgoing Arumeru West MP Mr Goodluck Ole Medeye, CCM Arusha regional chair Mr Onesmo Ole Nangole and CCM youth wing Arusha chair Mr Robinson Meitinyiku.

Lowassa’s supporters including a veteran politician and propagandist Mr Kingunge Ngombare Mwiru have criticized the party’s Ethics Committee (EC) by going against CCM constitution and assumed powers which are beyond it by chopping Mr Lowassa’s name from the contest.

What if Lowassa defects?

CCM’s former vice chairman Mr Pius Msekwa last Wednesday fielded an opinion piece at The Citizen defending the conduct of the party in selecting its presidential candidate which saw Works Minister Mr John Magufuli emerging victorious.

According to Mr Msekwa, unlike what Mr Kingunge and others are propagating the EC did what it was constitutionally mandated to do.

He also talked about defection saying “This matter of few persons defecting to opposition political parties cannot be a major concern for CCM.” Mr Msekwa added that the party for long has been prepared for such incidents. “Right from the introduction of multiparty politics way back in 1992, CCM foresaw the possibility of some of its members deciding to join other parties…Hence it comes as no surprise at all to CCM when some of its members decide to exit from the party.”

One might not be wrong to say that Mr Msekwa was using the chance to tell the public that the party will not be shaken let alone surprised if Mr Lowassa is to defect and that they are used and prepared to deal with such situations.