Former Prime Minister Edward Lowassa and the outgoing Vunjo MP Augustine
Mrema. The former is following in the footsteps of the latter. PHOTO |
FILE
Dar es Salaam. Augustino
Lyatonga Mrema was a household name during the 1995 General Election.
The man, who had served as the minister for Home Affairs and Deputy
Prime Minister in the Ali Hassan Mwinyi’s administration, defected from
ruling party CCM to the then main opposition party NCCR-Mageuzi and ran
for the presidency.
His defection and candidacy
received popular support from the public that other CCM’s senior members
such as Makongoro Nyerere, the son of founding President Mwl Julius
Nyerere, veteran politician Stephen Wassira and prominent lawyer and
academician Masumbuko Lamwai to name but a few, also followed suit.
Mr
Mrema’s campaign rallies attracted huge crowds. He was treated like a
king wherever he went, and was routinely carried shoulder high by his
supporters. His car was pushed in long processions in almost every town
that he visited.
Mr Mrema’s popularity set against the
backdrop of a less known Benjamin Mkapa who was CCM’s candidate that
year sent shocking waves to the ruling CCM.
Mr Mrema’s
popularity tested the credibility of a survey done three years
previously that indicated that 80 per cent of Tanzanians rejected the
re-introduction of multiparty politics and just a year earlier in 1994
CCM had won the local government elections by 97 per cent.
At
the end of the day CCM managed to win the presidential election by 61
per cent and Mr Mrema finished second with 27 per cent of all votes.
For
the last 20 years CCM has constantly seen some of its leaders and
members cross to opposition but no major defection like the one of 1995
has occurred till Mr Edward Lowassa announcement yesterday.
It
started as a wild rumour. And it eventually materialized when Mr
Lowassa, a former Prime Minister announced that he was decamping to
Chadema to pursue his presidential ambitions.
Some
signs of the defection started to be observed as early as when the
ruling party meetings chopped Mr Lowassa’s name from presidential
nomination race. That did not auger well with his diehard supporters who
started to cross to Chadema straight away starting with councilors from
his Monduli constituency.
More alarming was when some
influential politicians from Arusha who are said to be Mr Lowassa’s
faithful lieutenants and who were highly expected to pick CCM nomination
forms to defend or seek elective posts via the party failed to do so
without giving out any concrete reasons. They include, outgoing Arumeru
West MP Mr Goodluck Ole Medeye, CCM Arusha regional chair Mr Onesmo Ole
Nangole and CCM youth wing Arusha chair Mr Robinson Meitinyiku.
Soon
after the nomination process was over Lowassa’s supporters, including a
veteran politician and propagandist Mr Kingunge Ngombare Mwiru,
criticized the party’s Ethics Committee (EC) by going against CCM
constitution and assumed powers which are beyond it by chopping Mr
Lowassa’s name from the contest.
CCM’s former vice
chairman Mr Pius Msekwa last Wednesday fielded an opinion piece in the
The Citizen defending the conduct of the party in selecting its
presidential candidate which saw Works Minister Mr John Magufuli
emerging victorious.
According to Mr Msekwa, unlike
what Mr Kingunge and others are propagating the EC did what it was
constitutionally mandated to do.
He also talked about
defection saying “… this matter of few persons defecting to opposition
political parties cannot be a major concern for CCM.” Mr Msekwa added
that the party for long has been prepared for such incidents.
“Right
from the introduction of multiparty politics way back in 1992, CCM
foresaw the possibility of some of its members deciding to join other
parties…Hence it comes as no surprise at all to CCM when some of its
members decide to exit from the party.”
One might not
be wrong to say that Mr Msekwa was using the chance to tell the public
that the party will not be shaken let alone surprised if Mr Lowassa is
to defect and that they are used and prepared to deal with such
situations.
However the question of how prepared is CCM
to deal with defectors is a hot issue, political science don from
University of Dar es Salaam Dr Alexander Makulilo argued in his 2012
paper titled The Fallacy of De Facto Independent Candidacy in Tanzania: a
Rejoinder that the ruling party CCM, has some relatively effective
mechanisms and advantages to deal with such defections.
“Some
of those who tried, experienced negative consequences and finally
decided to return to the CCM. For example, Dr. Masumbuko Lamwai who was
once an icon in the NCCR-Mageuzi in 1995 was expelled from teaching at
the University of Dar es Salaam and his certificate to practice law
(advocate) was frozen. Finally, in 2000 he returned to CCM (after he
apologised before the CCM chairman and the former president of the
United Republic, Mr. Benjamin Mkapa and thousands of CCM members at the
Dar es Salaam National stadium). He was later nominated by the president
as a member of parliament (MP) and he is currently a senior CCM legal
advisor,” read Dr Makulila’s arguments in part.
Mr
Makongoro Nyerere and Mr Stephen Wassira also returned to CCM in early
2000s and they were also among the party’s 42 aspirants who picked
presidential nomination forms this year.
And as of Mr
Mrema who gave CCM a serious run for their money in 1995, he only
survived with NCCR-Mageuzi for a short time before again defecting to
TLP. After running unsuccessfully for presidency in in 2000 and 2005
General Elections, Mr Mrema addressed the CCM congress meeting (which he
was invited to attend) and said he was retiring from presidential
business and was going back to seeking for parliamentary seat.
Now
that Mr Lowassa has decided to cross the bridge and settled in the
other side of the river he will surely manage to attract massive support
just like Mr Mrema in 1995 or even more. However, he must also get
prepared to face the full force of the system that he joined in 1977 and
stayed with it until few days ago. He knows CCM won’t hesitate to
deploy every possible missile it holds in its arsenal to see that they
clinch victory come October.
According to Dr Makulilo
CCM usually use a trick he referred to as “carrot” to avoid what Mr
Lowassa has done and calm the situation.
“It was said
during the 2010 elections that Dr. Mohamed Bilal, who was one of the
potential presidential candidates in Zanzibar, threatened to defect
after he was not nominated by his party. Following such threats, he was
nominated as the Vice-President for the United Republic. This helped to
defuse the situation,” reads part of Dr Makulilla’s paper.
With
Mr Lowassa gone, it looks like there was no remaining “carrot” that the
party might have used to please and clam man who was in all accounts
well prepared and amassed support inside and outside CCM to succeed
President Jakaya Kikwete from living the party.
that
only four years down the line that the vast majority at 80 per cent
rejected the reintroduction of multiparty system (although the system
was established in 1992) and just a year earlier in 1994 CCM had won the
local government elections by 97 per cent.
However CCM
through its presidential contender Mr Bemjamin Mkapa managed to win the
election by 61 per cent. Mrema finished second obtaining 27 per cent of
all votes.
For the last 20 years CCM has been
constantly seeing some of its leaders and members cross to opposition
but no major defection like the one of 1995 has been recorded. This year
however there is a serious talk of major defection, the same or even
bigger than that of 1995.
Although he has maintained a
studious silence media reports has been linking former Prime Minister Mr
Edward Lowassa with a move to opposition, specifically to the main
opposition party Chadema.
Already some of his followers
including councillors from his Monduli constituency have joined Chadema
have been urging him to follow suit. More alarming is the fact that
some of influential politicians from Arusha who are said to be Mr
Lowassa’s faithful leutenats and were highly expected to pick nomination
forms to defend or seek elective posts via the party ticket failed to
do so without giving out any concrete reason. They are among others,
outgoing Arumeru West MP Mr Goodluck Ole Medeye, CCM Arusha regional
chair Mr Onesmo Ole Nangole and CCM youth wing Arusha chair Mr Robinson
Meitinyiku.
Lowassa’s supporters including a veteran
politician and propagandist Mr Kingunge Ngombare Mwiru have criticized
the party’s Ethics Committee (EC) by going against CCM constitution and
assumed powers which are beyond it by chopping Mr Lowassa’s name from
the contest.
What if Lowassa defects?
CCM’s
former vice chairman Mr Pius Msekwa last Wednesday fielded an opinion
piece at The Citizen defending the conduct of the party in selecting its
presidential candidate which saw Works Minister Mr John Magufuli
emerging victorious.
According to Mr Msekwa, unlike
what Mr Kingunge and others are propagating the EC did what it was
constitutionally mandated to do.
He also talked about
defection saying “This matter of few persons defecting to opposition
political parties cannot be a major concern for CCM.” Mr Msekwa added
that the party for long has been prepared for such incidents. “Right
from the introduction of multiparty politics way back in 1992, CCM
foresaw the possibility of some of its members deciding to join other
parties…Hence it comes as no surprise at all to CCM when some of its
members decide to exit from the party.”
One might not
be wrong to say that Mr Msekwa was using the chance to tell the public
that the party will not be shaken let alone surprised if Mr Lowassa is
to defect and that they are used and prepared to deal with such
situations.
